EMREP: Prediction of system response to electromagnetic environments
For years, software codes developed to predict system reliability, in an EM environment, fell short. These codes didn’t make accurate and reliable EM effects predictions, in the types of effects they model, in their ability to integrate analytic models with empirical data, and express results in reliability of effect.
DTRA needed to integrate their existing EM modeling and testing capabilities, to develop new models and tools, and provide a predictive capability for hostile EM effects in a fully verified and validated toolset, seamlessly combining modeling and empirical data.
ARA developed the EMREP software to provide users with test-based EM prediction capabilities. Government personnel use EMREP to predict and analyze the reliability of unhardened and hardened systems against electromagnetic environments. We strive to ensure that reliability predictions in EMREP remain closely tied to system test data. EMREP reliability predictions must quantify uncertainties, including a rigorous statistical methodology and additional uncertainties from assumptions and approximations due to limitations of modeling and data. Reliability depends on the stress on the system. This relationship is similar to the stress-strength comparison used in the development of standards, except the goal of hardening standards is to assure the strength sufficiently exceeds worst case stress to assure low risk.